December 2025 Freight Outlook: What's Shaping Global Ocean Freight
YQN Operation Team | 2025.12.04 | info@yqn.com
As 2025 closes, global logistics and ocean freight markets are heading into another volatile month shaped by route shifts, regulatory changes, and geopolitical risk. Here’s a look at what’s moving freight rates in December — and what forwarders should watch.
Surge in Shipping Capacity as Suez Canal Return Looms
The biggest development in Suez Canal shipping news is the industry’s gradual shift back to the canal after months of diversions via the Cape of Good Hope. Following months of rerouted sailings, carriers have begun returning to the Suez Canal.
Maersk has announced it will “begin routing its container vessels back through the Suez Canal beginning in early December” under a new strategic partnership agreement with the Suez Canal Authority (SCA).
CMA CGM had already sent mega-vessels, including CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin and CMA CGM Osiris through the Suez Canal this year.
Some carriers, for example, Hapag-Lloyd, have publicly stated they are not yet resuming transit via Suez/Red Sea yet they are looking closely.
A full return to the Suez Canal could shorten international shipping transit times on Asia–Europe lanes by 10–14 days and rebalance vessel cycles. However, it’s also worth noting that “the ceasefire holds and container vessels resume transits via the Red Sea in large numbers, the traffic is likely to surge, but this would not lead to immediate stability. A sudden influx of ships could lead to port congestion, delaying a full return to normal trade patterns,” according to Anurag Kumar, Senior Research Analyst at Drewry Maritime Research.
Why This Matters for Logistics & Global Trade
- Forwarders need to adjust schedules and plan early bookings to secure vessel space.
- Shippers should anticipate short-term rate volatility and potential delays.
- Global trade flows may normalize faster once capacity stabilizes, reducing cost and transit uncertainty.
ONE Updates Europe Environment Surcharge Ahead of EU ETS Compliance
Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced it will update its Europe Environment Surcharge starting 1 January 2026, aligning with the EU ETS transition to full emissions compliance.
Key points:
- Carriers will be required to account for 100% of regulated emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide.
- ONE will review the surcharge quarterly, adjusting based on carbon cost dynamics.
- For shipments originating from China, the environmental cost will be embedded directly into ocean freight rates.
Why This Matters for Logistics & Global Trade
International shipping teams should monitor regulatory updates to ensure compliance and optimize routing to manage costs.
Black Sea War-Risk Insurance Rates Spike After Drone Attacks
War-risk insurance premiums for international shipping in the Black Sea surged after Ukrainian naval drones struck two tankers bound for a Russian port. For vessels calling at Ukrainian ports, war-risk rates rose from ~0.40% to ~0.50% of vessel value. For Russian port calls, premiums climbed to 0.65–0.80%, up from ~0.60%, according to Reuters.
The targeted tankers were empty and en route to Novorossiysk, a key Russian export hub. Underwriters now consider the Black Sea a higher-risk zone, and further incidents could push premiums even higher.
The Black Sea connects major ports in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, and Turkey to the Mediterranean via the Bosporus Strait. It handles bulk commodities like grain, fertilizers, metals, and oil — making it a vital route for global agricultural and energy supply chains.
Why This Matters for Logistics & Global Trade
- Freight forwarding operations should anticipate higher insurance costs, which may be passed to shippers via surcharges.
- Logistics planners may need to evaluate alternative routes or ports to mitigate risk exposure.
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